The Threat Briefing gives you a compact insight into incidents related to critical infrastructures over the past month. It will precisely analyse the most important issues and will occasionally cover overarching topics in a separate FOCUS section. For more, follow me on Twitter (@quantum_CNI).
This edition covers:
FOCUS: Russian Offensive on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure in Spring 2024
FOCUS: Russian Offensive on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure in Spring 2024
When Russia launched an attack on 29 December 2023, followed by a fierce assault on 2 January 2024, it fitted into the pattern of winter bombardments of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. On the second date, 99 missiles including 10 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles plus 35 drones targeted Kyiv and Kharkiv in particular. 250,000 citizens were without power in the capital, which also resulted in a partial loss of water supply. It indicated that another large-scale campaign on the energy sector could be about to begin. There were damages to the energy system due to shelling or hostilities almost every day but a larger, concerted effort did not materialise for two-and-a-half months.
The campaign started in March and continued into April, when coordinated attacks targeted generation facility in particular. Although Ukraine tries to keep the details secret it is possible to derive the specific plants by combining multiple sources and own research. However, the operational concerns of Ukrainian state services and plant operators shall be respected and specifications are not published.
On 22 March, Russia fired 90 missiles and 60 drones, marking the largest shelling of the energy system since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Two coal-fired plants in the Ivano-Frankivsk and Vinnytsia region with a combined capacity of 4.2 GW were significantly damaged according to DTEK, the largest private operator of power plants in Ukraine. DTEK has the majority of fossil plants in operation. Three other plants were also damaged and needed repairs. One of the two plants in the Kharkiv oblast and, in addition, three substations were completely destroyed. The other plant was targeted, too. It took a full year to repair parts of it, that were damaged in previous strikes, but within two weeks since the restart, it suffered damages to turbines, generators and transformers. Furthermore, the Dnipro hydropower plant was attacked resulting in a fire. The plant is situated in the Dnipro dam which stows the Zaporizhzhia reservoir. It is the fifth hydroelectric plant along the Dnipro River and the largest by capacity. It immediately raised concerns of a similar scenario to the Kakhovka dam, which was blown up on 6 June 2023. The Ukrainian Environment Ministry said a day later that the situation is under control and there is no danger of a breach.
A week later, on 29 March, 60 drones and 39 missiles were fired into Ukraine doubling down on targets. The power plant in Kharkiv was hit again as were three of DTEK’s plants in the Dnipropetrovsk and Ivano-Frankivsk region. The Ukrainian government also confirmed that two more hydroelectric plants were hit. One is in the Cherkasy region and the second in the western Chernivtsi region which stows the Dniester River close to the Moldavian border.
82 missiles and drones were shot on 11 April and although Ukrainian air defence was able to shoot down 18 missiles and 39 drones, the rest came through which included all six Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. The attack completely destroyed a crucial thermal power plant in the Kyiv region. According to Zelenskyy, Russia fired 11 missiles on the plant, of which 7 could be shot down. But the remaining four hit the target. As a result, operator Centrenergo had finally lost all its capacity. One of the power plants in Kharkiv was attacked again, too, while DTEK also stated that two of its plants were damaged by shelling.
The latest attack came on 27 April with 34 missiles, of which 21 were reportedly downed by Ukraine. Four DTEK plants were damaged as a result, which likely are in the Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Dnipropetrovsk region and were targets in March already.
The eastern city of Kharkiv was a focal point in March. Both power plants in the region are destroyed and are not working. Russia also destroyed multiple substations in the region. As a result, Kharkiv’s electricity supply is highly fragile. It has to rely on electricity transported from western parts of the country. But with limited working transmission infrastructure, power outages occur daily with severe consequences for the people living there. Phones and power banks are charged when the electricity is available to bridge the outages, water reserves are kept for drinking and washing, the metro is only working partially. Hospitals are particularly protected and are exempt from rolling power outages by the transmission system operator but at one point the whole city of Kharkiv was without power, which also affected the healthcare sector. Reports from April suggested that Russia could have eliminated the western-supplied patriot air defence system that protected the city from Russian air attacks. The intention for targeting Kharkiv so heavily is not yet clear. President Putin has talked about a “buffer zone” on the Ukrainian-Russian border to protect Russian territory from Ukraine’s drone army. To establish this zone, Kharkiv would be a key target. A conventional military operation to capture the city is considered highly difficult, therefore Russia’s first goal may be to target energy infrastructures, make life as difficult as possible and make as many citizens as possible fleeing the city.
Compared to the 2022/2023 campaign, which took place in winter, the timing of this one seemed peculiar. The winter period was about to end when Russia first stroke at the end of March and the lesser need for heat alleviates the pressure on Ukraine’s energy system operators and foregoes some effectiveness for Russia. Nevertheless, the campaign has had a lasting impact on the energy system. Multiple power plants were confirmed to be irreparably destroyed. Centrenergo lost all of its capacity. DTEK described the situation as “serious” as “the level of damage is enormous”. Multiple sources stated that the air attacks became more precise than previously. This could be down to better intelligence or better operation by the Russians. Russia could have increased the number of missiles and drones per facility targeted. All of the company’s plants are either damaged or destroyed, the capacity went down to 20% following the March attacks. It might take several hundreds of millions of dollars to repair the assets but spare parts are difficult to source. They are either coming from older, east European plants built in Soviet times or DTEK needs to purchase new parts from manufacturers in Europe or Asia, which drives up the costs. Manufacturing these parts however needs up to 18 months for new generators, turbines or transformers. It is unclear how much Ukraine could re-connect to the grid short-term. The Russian strategy therefore most likely have been to take advantage of Ukraine’s depleted air defence and destroy Ukraine’s energy system in a way that the country will be unable to function. This, combined with territorial gains on the battlefield, could force Kyiv into negotiations where Moscow can dictate terms under the constant pressure of civilian suffering as soon as temperatures drop from October onwards. The most pressing issue however was not the repair but rather the protection. DTEK invested more than 100 million US dollars to repair ten units and to bring them back online before last winter. All ten units are either damaged or destroyed completely now. These are concrete costs for a lack of support.
U.S. aid worth 61 billion US dollars was stuck in Congress since last October due to Republican opposition as the group, organised and led by former President Trump, wanted Congress to prioritise the U.S.-Mexican border reinforcement over foreign aid. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, a Republican who was associated with the Trump camp in the party and opposed Ukraine aid in the past, reverted his position in a remarkable and emotional address to the press, fully aware that this move could jeopardise his position as a group of far-right Members of the House, led by Marjorie Taylor Greene threatening to remove him from his post as speaker. He said he would call a vote on the aid bill stating that “history judges us for what we do” and that he would “rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys”. Mr Johnson’s son will start the Naval Academy in the fall. The bill passed the House with a clear majority of 311 votes to 112. The Senate, with a Democratic majority approved it few days later and President Biden signed it into law. But the 112 opposing votes in the House were the majority from the Republican party, only 101 Republicans approved the bill. This is a first indication that the support for Ukraine could stall if Trump is re-elected and the Republicans gain back influence in the White House.
The timing of the bill was crucial. It now, as they are able to protect it again, allows Ukraine to repair and rebuild as much of the energy system as possible ahead of the summer, when electricity is needed for cooling, but more importantly ahead of next winter.